米家具専門紙「ファニチャー・トゥデー」（電子版）によると、同国の寝具を含む家具産業の売上高は２０２１年に力強く回復し、前年比４％増の１１９８億ドル（約１２兆７０００億円）になると見込まれる。家具販売店の売上高は３・３％増の６８０億ドルになると予測される。新型コロナウイルスの感染拡大で在宅勤務が広がり、消費者が家で過ごす時間が増えたことなどにより家具需要が増加するとしている。

　ファニチャー・トゥデーは米国の各種 経済指標や専門家の意見などを基に、同国の家具産業を独自に分析している。それによると、20年の同国の家具産業の推計売上高は前年比０・６％増の１１５２億ドルだった。
　20年はインターネット通販最大手「アマゾン」や家具電子商取引（ＥＣ）を手掛ける「ウェイフェア」の躍進と、主要店舗（エッセンシャルストア）の売り上げが、新型コロナのパンデミック（世界的流行）で不況となる可能性があったった業界にわずかながらも成長をもたらしたと評価している。
　21年については、米国の実質国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）成長予測（前年比４・４％増）、失業率予測、連邦準備理事会（ＦＲＢ）の金利政策、住宅市場の動向などを踏まえた上で、家具産業の売上高を予測した。
　米国の失業率は20年11月に６・７％だったが、21年第1四半期（１～３月）から新型コロナワクチンの接種が始まったことで全ての職種で失業率が低下し、21年通年では５・７％まで改善するとみている。ただし、打撃が大きかったサービス業の雇用は22年まで完全には回復しないと指摘している。
　金利政策では、フェデラルファンド（ＦＦ）金利が現在、08年以来最低水準となる０～０・25％となっている。多くの専門家が21年もプライムレート（最優遇貸出金利）が低いまま維持されるとの見通しを出していることから、ファニチャー・トゥデーは21年の商業ローンの年利は２・８％になると予測している。
　家具市場と関連が深い住宅市場に関しては、ＦＦ金利の低下から30年固定の住宅ローンの金利が過去最低に近い水準まで下がり、借り入れ費用が安くなったことで、21年の既存住宅の販売数が前年比６％増の６００万戸に達するとしている。
　懸念材料としては、直近データとなる昨年12月の消費者信頼感指数が前月比４・３ポイント急落し88・６になったことを挙げているが、連邦議会が失業保険給付金を上乗せする法案を可決したため、21年第１四半期には消費者心理が上向くと、楽観的な見方を示している。
　【注】この記事は配信元から許可を得た上で抜粋、要約、転載しています。原文はhttps://www.furnituretoday.com/research-and-analysis/furniture-industry-expected-to-grow-by-4-in-2021/から読むことができます。

【Furniture Today 原文】
Furniture industry expected to grow by 4% in 2021
Michael Hurley//Research Associate, PBM Strategic Insights Team
January 11, 2021

HIGH POINT — The economy shrank an estimated 3.5% in 2020, according to Furniture Today estimates.

Economic growth was halted by the novel-coronavirus pandemic, which hit the United States in full-force in March. The home furnishings industry fared better than the overall economy, as sales grew an estimated 0.6%, reaching $115.2 billion.

With real GDP expected to grow by 4.4% overall in 2021 as the trend of economic recovery continues across the United States, Furniture Today estimates the home furnishings industry will grow by 4% in 2021, reaching nearly $120 billion.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate in November was 6.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With multiple vaccines already starting to roll out in the U.S. by the first quarter of 2021, unemployment is expected to decrease across all job sectors.

According to Furniture Today’s exclusive Economic Outlook, which takes a multitude of economic forecasts and expert opinions into account, unemployment in 2021 should hover around 5.7% for most of the year. Even with multiple vaccines expected to be available, many experts believe service jobs, which have borne the brunt of job losses, will not return to full strength until 2022.

Prime interest

The Federal Reserve slashed the federal funds rate in March. The federal funds rate is now between 0% and 0.25%, the lowest point since 2008. The emergency cuts to the federal funds rate in March were designed to combat negative impacts of the coronavirus.

Most experts believe prime interest rates will remain low in 2021 in an effort to stimulate economic recovery. Furniture Today estimates the rate on an average six-month commercial loan will be 2.8% this year.

During its last meeting of the year in December, the Fed’s voted to hold the federal funds rate steady.

Housing market

Due to the low federal funds rate, rates on 30-year fixed home loans are at near record lows, according to Freddie Mac. Cheap borrowing costs have sent Americans flocking to the home market and have spurred on growth in the housing market this year.

According to a report released by the National Assn. of Realtors, sales of existing homes hit a 14-year record high in August.

However, the housing market is experiencing a severe inventory shortage right now. Housing inventory hit a record low of 2.5 month supply in October, according to the NAR.

NAR Chief Economist Lauren Yun called the recent housing market gains “spectacular” and announced that “the surge in sales in recent months has now offset spring market losses.” She expects existing home sales to increase by 6% in 2021, reaching 6 million units.

The inventory shortage fueled by the recent surge in home sales has driven prices up. The median price of a home sold in October was $313,000, up 15.5% from one year ago.

Consumer confidence

Consumer confidence fell to 88.6 in December, down from 92.9 the previous month. Consumer confidence, a key economic measure, was far lower in December than many experts anticipated.

Since the Consumer Confidence survey was conducted last month, however, Congress has since passed a $900 billion relief bill, which supplements unemployment claims by $300 per week and provides direct payments of $600 to most Americans. The bill is expected to increase consumer’s economic outlook and stimulate consumer spending in the first quarter of 2021.

Furniture industry

Furniture Today predicts the furniture industry will enjoy a strong year in 2021, in line with the general trend of economic recovery expected by most economists.

Furniture store sales are anticipated to grow by 3.3%, reaching $68 billion. Overall furniture and bedding estimates should reach $119.8 billion, a 4% annual growth. Sales should largely being driven by the growing trends of remote workers and consumers spending more time at home, as well as shifting consumer attitudes.

The furniture industry increased by 0.6% in 2020, according to Furniture Today estimates. Strong gains among direct-to-consumer retailers such as Amazon and Wayfair, along with strong sales from “essential” stores, were enough to create slight growth in what could have been a down year for the industry.